Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
New Month. New stories? Grains are mixed. SX is down 2 cents and near 12.53. SMZ is near 330.9. BOZ is near 58.04. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.38. WZ is up 12 cents and near 7.38. KWZ is up 10 cents and near 7.42. MWZ is up 9 cents and near 9.22. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is marginally higher. Crude is lower.
Biden administration will announce Monday US and China trade relations and desire China meets deal.
US west Midwest and north plains dry. South plains rains less than est. W EU wet. Russia, Arg, Brazil dry.
Soybeans futures are still trying to recover from USDA Sep 1 stocks estimate of 256 mil bu. Some raised their US 2021/22 soybean carryout to 300 mil bu vs USDA Sep 185. No previous USDA stocks report showed the higher supply. USDA raised 2020 crop 82 mil bu. US Jun-Aug soybean exports 112 vs 315 ly, crush 492 vs 536, est residual -75 vs 10 ly.
Corn trying to find support despite higher US Sep 1 stocks. Talk of lower US harvest yields supportive. Most estimating US 2021/22 corn carryout near 950-1,240 vs USDA 1,408. Key is final yield and exports. US Jun-Aug corn exports 597 vs 550 ly, feed/residual 608 vs 954, industrial use 1,675 vs 1,584. US Sep 1 on farm corn stocks 32 pct of total vs 39 ly, soybeans 26 vs 27.
Bullish part of report was wheat. USDA est both final 2021 crop and Sep 1 stocks below estimates. Talk of lower Russia wheat exports plus countries banning Argentina GMO wheat is supportive. Fact USDA dropped winter wheat crop more than spring wheat is helping WZ and KWZ gain on MWZ.
US Jun-Aug wheat food use 240 vs 241 ly, exports 236 vs 272, feed/residual 256 vs 213. Annual F/R 160. US corn export commit 996 mil bu vs 969 ly, soybeans 892 vs 1,396 and wheat 407 vs 514.
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