Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
New month. Key month for US crops. Grains are mixed. SU is up 1 cent and near 14.09. SX is down 2 cent and near 13.97. SMU is near 382.5. BOU is near 63.04. CU is up 12 cents and near 6.11. CZ is up 7 cents and near 5.96. WU is down 6 cents and near 6.72. KWU is down 9 cents and near 6.50. MWU is down 2 cents and near 8.47.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 in SRW, up 28 3/4 in HRW, up 114 in HRS; Corn is up 50; Soybeans up 23 1/4; Soymeal down $9.80; Soyoil up 3.75.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 86 yuan ; Soymeal up 116; Soyoil up 156; Palm oil up 168; Corn up 10 — Malasyian Palm is up 112.
US 8-14 day weather forecast calls for below rains in NW Midwest normal to abvoe east and south. Temps are above in NW and central Midwest below east and south. Today, forecast is drier for Iowa.
Overnight, soybean futures traded lower after China XI speech warned of west intervention into China.
US 2021 corn acres near 92.7 vs 93.8 expected and 91.1 in March and 90.8 ly. June 1 corn stocks 4,112. US 2021 corn crop est near 14,870, 21/22 exports 2,950, feed 5,500 and carryout 630 vs 1,357. US 2021soybean acres near 87.5 vs 88.9 expected and 87.6 in March and 83.1 ly. June 1 stocks 766.
9.8 million US soybean acres yet to be planted. Half double crop acres that may not all get planted.
US 2021 soybean crop est near 4,335, 21/22 exports 2,100, crush 2,210 and carryout 85 vs 155. US 2021 wheat acres near 46.7 vs 45.9 expected and 46.3 in March and 44.3 ly. June 1 wheat stocks 843. Some now estimate US 2021 wheat crop near 1,735 mil bu vs 1,898. 21/22 carryout 555 vs 770
July US/World WASDE report key for US corn and soybean demand outlook and first wheat by class est.
On crazy Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 24,000 soybeans, 15,000 soymeal, 4,000 soyoil, and 32,,000, Corn. We estimate Managed Money net short 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 261,000 Corn; net long 84,000 Soybeans; net long 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 55,000 Soyoil.
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