Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down. CZ is down. WZ is up. US stocks are higher. China stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher. Cattle were higher. Hogs were lower.
Soybean futures are lower. There are new concerns about China economy and import demand. Dalian soymeal futures traded lower. Weekly US soybean crop ratings remained at 59 G/E. IL was down 5 pct. This weeks US Midwest hot and dry forecast is not the best finish for US soybean crop. Argentina remains dry. N Brazil is also dry. Brazil August soybean exports are near 10.7 mmt with 4.3 in line up. Brazil farmer has slowed new cash sales due to dry forecast. Pro Farmer tour found OH soybean pod count at 1,253 vs 1,131 ly and 1,161 3 year average. SD pod count is 1,013 vs 871 ly and 1,039 3 year average. Tour will be in NE and IN today. US soybean exports are down 8 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 8 pct drop.
Corn futures are lower Weekly corn crop ratings dropped 1 pct to at 58 G/E. Some feel this weeks US Midwest hot and dry forecast may not have a big negative impact for yields. Argentina remains dry. N Brazil is also dry. Brazil August corn exports are record and 9 mmt with 5 in line up. Pro Farmer tour found OH corn yield at 183.9 vs 174.1 ly and 175.6 3 year average. SD corn yield is 157.4 vs 118.4 ly and 149.7 3 year average. Tour will be in NE and IN today. US corn exports are down 33 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 34 pct drop.
Wheat futures are higher. There is talk Ukraine may be close to a deal that would offer insurance for grain vessels exported from Ukraine Black Sea ports. US spring wheat harvest is 39 pct. Remaining crop rating dropped to 38 pct G/E vs 64 ly. ND farmers report harvest yield better that crop ratings. Egypt tendering for wheat. USDA est Australia wheat crop 5 pct above average but last El Nino crop was down 30 pct from average and only 14.5 mmt. US wheat exports are down 19 pct vs ly. USDA est is for a 8 pct drop.
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