Most Contracts Experiencing 2-Sided Trade

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Higher trade across the much of the Ag space overnight as most contracts experiencing 2 sided trade.  There are expanded limits today in the soybean complex follow limit down moves yesterday in soybeans and oil.  Limits today are $1.05 bu. for soybeans, $30 per ton in meal and $.055 lb. for bean oil.  Yesterday’s selloff was fueled by massive speculative selling as hopes for renewed Chinese interest in US soybeans fade while energy prices leveled off.  Markets continue to trade headline to headline.  Energy prices are moderately higher this morning as the Straits of Hormuz remains mostly closed while countries evaluate the Trump Administrations plan to protect vessels through the narrow passage way.  Spot crude is currently up $2.75 near $96.25 a barrel.  RBOB is up $.11 a gallon with HO up $.22.  So far no additional updates on Pres. Trump’s potential visit to Beijing this Spring as China remains less than enthusiastic in helping protect vessels thru the SOH.  Beneficial rains have started to fall across previously missed areas in S. Buenos Aires.  Rains in Brazil continue to favor central and northern growing areas while the South remains too dry.  In the US heavy rains have finally pushed off to the east.  Lite snow this AM in the northern plains with much below normal temperatures.  Only lite precipitation over the next week in the NC Midwest and Great Lakes region.  Above normal temperatures will gradually build across the S. plains and WCB belt this week.  Normal to below normal in the East.  The US $$ is steady while stock indices are slightly lower.

Corn:

 May-26 is up $.02 ½ at $4.56 ½, with Dec-26 also up $.02 ½ at $4.82 ½, both holding within yesterday’s range.  US export inspections remains strong at up 39% YOY vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%.  Brazil’s 2^nd crop plantings at 91% are below the YA pace of 97% with 1^st crop harvest at only 50%, well below the 72% pace from YA.  Conab forecasts Brazil’s ethanol production in 2026/27 will grow 4 bil. liters, up from 36.7 bil. in 2025/26.

Soybeans: 

Prices have surged in the past hour with May-26 beans are up $.08 near $11.63 while Nov-26 is up $.14 at $11.35.  May-26 meal is steady while May-26 oil has surged over $.02 trading just over $.66 lb.  Perhaps pending news on RVO’s and SRE or just following the pop higher in HO ?  May-26 beans bottomed out overnight at $11.45 ¼, almost the exact 50% retracement of the rally from the January low to the recent high.  May-26 meal is consolidating near its 100 day MA.  NOPA crush in Feb-26 at nearly 209 mil. bu. was above expectations.  Implied census crush at 214 mil. bu. would bring cumulative crush through the first 6 months of the 25/26 MY to 1.334 bil. bu. up 8.2% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 5.3%.  Daily crush rates at 7.64 mbd would be a new record high.  Look for another 10-15 mil. bu. hike in the USDA crush est. currently projected at 2.575 bil. bu.  Higher than expected crush however led to bean oil stocks growing to nearly 2.1 bil. lbs. at the high end of expectations and well above the 1.503 bil. from Feb-25.

Wheat: 

Prices range from down $.02 in MIAX to up $.03 in CGO.  CGO May-26 is up $.02 near $5.99 while KC May-26 is up $.01 ½ at $6.18, both holding within yesterday’s range.  Wild temperature swings and growing drought in the SW plains provide underlying support.  Crop ratings slipped in the southern plains with KS slipping 4% to 52% G/E, TX was off 1% to 15% G/E with OK down 6% to only 18% G/E.

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