Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 1.24
May 1, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is unch. CK is down. WK is down. KWK is up. MWK is down. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower on talk of Gaza ceasefire. Gold is up on higher geopolitical tension. Hogs gained on cattle on Friday. US solar eclipse day.
SK is near 11.85. Funds remain short soybean and soymeal but have flipped to long soyoil. SMK is in a 320-340 range. BOK is lower. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher. Palmoil and soyoil were lower. WASDE report this week. Trade looks for USDA to keep US 2023/24 carryout near 315 mil bu. Trade also looks for USDA to drop Brazil soybean crop 3-4 mmt. Weekly US soybean exports and sales are expected to below pace to reach USDA goal.
CK is near 4.32. US Midwest weather forecast is favorable for planting. Managed funds remain short 260,000 corn contracts. WASDE report this week. Trade looks for USDA to drop US 2023/24 corn carryout 70 mil bu. Trade also looks for USDA to drop Brazil corn crop 2 mmt. Weekly US corn exports are expected to be near pace to reach USDA goal. Trade will be watching for how many corn acres were planted last week. Lower Crude process may be offering resistance to corn futures near 20 and 50 DMA.
WK is near 5.62. S&P Global increased Russia, Ukraine and India wheat crops but lowered EU. US south plains forecast is warmer and drier. N EU is wet. S EU and Black Sea is dry. Managed funds remain short a record 85,000 Chicago wheat futures. Trade looks for USDA to increase US 2023/24 wheat carryout 20 mil bu. WK near 50 DMA resistance. KWK is listless and near 20 DMA support and 50 DMA resistance. MWK near 20 DMA resistance.
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