Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil is higher this morning after seeing some pressure yesterday from news of progress in US/Iran talks over the weekend and on some market anxiety off of Trump’s threatening to fire Fed Chair Powell. Russia’s economy ministry overnight cut its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in 2025 by nearly 17% from its September forecasts. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports in February rose to 6.547 million barrels per day from 6.073 million bpd in January. Output was 8.947 million bpd, up from 8.917 million in January. Taiwan’s President said that increasing purchases of US natural gas and oil is a focus of tariff negotiations. The share of OPEC oil in India’s imports have slipped in the fiscal year 2024/25 as refiners have focused on cheaper oil from Russia. Russia represented 36% of India’s exports, and OPEC’s share was 48.5%. While on his visit to India today, Vice President Vance said the US is looking to sell more energy and defense equipment to India. For the US inventory reports this week, the early Reuters poll has an average trade expectations for US crude oil stocks to be -1.5 million barrels last week, with gasoline -1.3 million and distillates up 200,000.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas is slightly higher this morning after a steep decline yesterday that took the market to its lowest level since December. European prices were under pressure overnight with warmer weather forecasts and concerns over the global economy. The US weather forecast is mild as well, with the 6-10 day showing above normal temperatures from the Great Plains to the east coast and the 8-14 showing above normal across most of the lower 48 with the exception of near-normal temps in the Southwest. Taiwan’s President said that increasing purchases of US natural gas and oil is a focus of tariff negotiations. Taiwan currently only gets around 10% of its LNG from the United States, with most coming from Australia and Qatar. Europe’s gas storage sites ended the winter season almost two-thirds empty, and they are expected to rebuild their supply over summer, and they could be active buyers of US LNG as well, provided they reach an agreement on tariffs. For the EIA storage report this week, the early Reuters poll has an average trade expectations for US natural gas storage to show a net injection of 54-80 bcf last week.
PRODUCT MARKETS
For the US inventory reports this week, the early Reuters poll has an average trade expectations for US gasoline stocks to be -1.3 million barrels last week with distillates up 200,000 barrels.
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