Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mostly lower.
U.S. based employers announced 89,703 job cuts in March, which is up 15% from the 77,770 announced in February. This is up 319% from the 21,387 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, according to a report released from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Jobless claims in the week ended April 4 were 228,000 when 201,000 were expected.
Stock index futures have performed very well considering recent strains in the international financial system and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The S&P Global euro zone construction PMI dropped to 45.0 in March 2023, which is down from 47.6 the month before. This was the eleventh consecutive monthly contraction.
Industrial production in Germany increased in February for a second consecutive month. Industrial output, comprising production in manufacturing, energy and construction, increased 2.0% in February compared with the previous month. Economists expected industrial production to be unchanged over the month.
The unemployment rate in Canada was 5.0% compared to market forecasts of 5.1%.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Underlying support remains due to the belief that central banks will not be able to keep raising interest rates much longer.
James Bullard of the Federal Reserve will speak at 9:00 central time.
Bullard’s comments will probably be hawkish. Once his comments are out of the way higher prices are likely for futures.
The technicals and fundamentals for futures have become more supportive since early March.
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