Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Quarter end. USDA stocks report day. TGIF. Grains are mixed to higher. SX is up 3 cents and near 13.03. SMZ is near 391.5. BOZ is near 56.85. CZ is unch and near 4.89. WZ is up 4 cents and near 5.82. KWZ is up 2 cents and near 6.87. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 7.52. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch and near $91.65. US stocks are higher after UAW dropped their wage demand increase. There is still concern over China property market, US shutdown and higher inflation.
Soybean futures are higher. Dalian futures are closed for holiday. Brazil and Argentina farmer increased soybean sales. Central Brazil could see some rains. Argentina is dry. USDA is expected to estimate US Sep 1 soybean stocks near 242 mil bu vs 274 ly and USDA est of 250. US soybean export commit is down 33 pct vs ly. US hog hear is near 7 year low. There is talk China may have switched some US gulf soybean cargoes to SA. India vegoil stocks are report record high.
Corn futures are unch but have rallied from 4.67 to 4.89.Next key resistance is near 4.93. US Midwest should be dry and should help harvest. Yields are variable but improving. Brazil farmer increased cash sales on sharply lower real. US farmer remains slow seller of corn with ethanol margins positive. US corn export commit is down 3 pct vs ly and USDA est of an increase of 23 pct. US river logistics problem limits new US corn exports. There is talk that Ukraine sold 1 mmt of corn to China. USDA is expected to estimate US Sep 1 corn stocks near 1,429 mil bu vs 1,377 ly and USDA est of 1,452.
Wheat futures are higher. Higher US Dollar and lower east EU and Russia prices has weighed on US wheat futures. USDA is expected to estimate US Sep 1 wheat stocks near 1,772 mil bu vs 1,778 ly. USDA wheat crop is est near 1,729 vs 1,650 ly. US wheat export commit is down 14 pct vs ly and USDA est of an drop of 8 pct. Aussie crop est at 23-25 mmt. Argentina 16.5.
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