Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are lower. SH is down 10 cents and near 12.08. SMH is near 360.7. BOH is near 45.36. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.46. WH is down 5 cents and near 5.99. KWH is down 4 cents and near 6.26. MWH is down 6 cents and near 6.93. Fed day. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower refocusing on lower demand. China lower manufacturing data offered resistance to commodities. .
SH is near 12.08. SH failed to trade over 12.20 overnight. IMF suggested higher Q2 World economy. Funds covered shorts on concern about hot/dry Argentina weather. Trade estimates US Dec crush at 206.1 mil bu vs 200.1 in Nov and 187.4 last year. US Dec soyoil stocks are est at 1,764 mil lbs vs 1,592 in Nov and 2,306 ly. Brazil bought 5-6 Brazil soybean cargoes. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures found some support while soyoil and palmoil continues lower on Asian demand worries. 3 new estimates of Brazil soybean crop averages 148 mmt vs USDA 157.
CH is near 4.46. CH failed to trade over 4.48 overnight. 20 DMA resistance is near 4.51. Funds covered shorts on Tuesday due to concern about hot/dry Argentina weather. Brazil 1st crop harvest is near 15 pct. 2ND crop planting is near 11 pct planted which is ahead of normal. USDA Ag Attaché increased Ukraine corn exports to 29.2 mmt vs USDA previous est of 21.0. Concern about increase Middle East tension as US eyes targets for retaliation against servicemen deaths helped rally Crude to 79.29. Crude is lower overnight due to renewed demand worries especially China.
Wheat futures are lower. WH is near 5.99. KWH 6.26. MWH 6.93. WH failed to trade over 6.00 overnight. Funds covered shorts on Tuesday as short position had reached high historical levels and futures were oversold. Russia and EU wheat prices remain a discount to US. Fact China announced they will accept Argentina wheat imports could increase Brazil demand for US wheat. Wheat trade trying to prices drop in US and EU 2024 winter wheat acres vs higher monthly US wheat state crop ratings and higher EU and Russia available export supplies.
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