Written Commentary
Global Ag News for Dec 8.23
December 8, 2023
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Month end. Grains are lower. SF is down 4 cents and near 13.02. SMZ is near 425.5. BOZ is near 51.98. CZ is unch and near 4.78. WZ is down 4 cents and near 5.61. KWZ is down 5 cents and near 6.40. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.15. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unchanged but near overnight high. Crude is higher after Mondays steep losses.
Soybean futures are lower. Rains in C Brazil and Argentina is offering resistance to soybean and soymeal futures. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Palmoil on talk of higher Malaysia supply. Argentina is reporting shortage of diesel fuel and soybean crushers could run out of soybean by mid November. Weekly US soybean exports were near 69 mil bu. Season to date exports are 365 vs 376 ly. Trade looking for more China US buying. USDA estimated US harvest near 85. Harvest is slow in MI and KY. On Monday, Managed funds reduced risk in soybean and soymeal due to talk of a more normal South America weather pattern.
Corn futures are unchanged but near recent lows. Slow US farmer selling is supporting basis. Ukraine July-Oct corn exports were near 3.6 mmt vs 6.8 ly. Brazil corn export line up is 8.4 mmt and testing logistics. Weekly US corn exports were near 21 mil bu. Season to date exports are 194 vs 165 ly. USDA estimated US harvest near 71. Harvest is slow in IN, MI, OH and WI. On Monday, Managed funds reduced risk in corn due to talk of a more normal South America weather pattern.
Wheat futures are lower. There is talk that China is buying Australia and French wheat. There is also talk of lower China milling wheat supply. Russia wheat prices are as low as $220-$230. There is still lower demand especially to N Africa due to lower currencies. USDA rated US winter wheat crop at 47 pct G/E vs 28 ly. KS 32, OK 42, OR 34, MO 62. Weekly US wheat exports were near 7 mil bu. Season to date exports are 261 vs 354 ly.
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