Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SN is up 4 cents and near 15.86. SX is down 4 cents and near 13.96. SMN is near 422.4. BON is near 67.41. Palmoil is lower. CN is unchanged and near 6.44. CZ is down 5 cents and near 5.37. WN is down 9 cents and near 6.97. KWN is down 10 cents and near 6.47. MWN is down 26 cents and near 7.14. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch. Gold and cropper are higher.
US 7 day rain will be across US south plains and now US north plains. Parts of south Russia is dry.
Talk of increase demand helps rally GSI Index to 2015 highs. Demand should remain strong through fall.
Biden spending on infrastructure should increase debt and weigh on US Dollar.
Some feel higher demand could push Crude oil prices higher and could test $70-75.
Corn futures dropped on news that final US 2021 corn acres could increase 5-6 mmt vs .5-2.0 expected. Brazil corn areas remain warm with above normal temps. This could continue to reduce their corn crop.
More are looking for the final Brazil corn crop to drop below 90 mmt. This could help US exports.Some feel higher old US corn export demand and higher 21/22 demand could send corn futures higher.
US wheat futures dropped on talk of lower World wheat prices and good US wheat rains. Some feel 7.00 WN could be key support and US wheat end users should add to coverage.
SX support near 13.80. USDA US May 2021/22 soybean stocks to use lowest May on record. 20 pct of US 2021 soybean acres are in drought areas. Drier US summer could lower supply. US domestic soybean basis firm and near +80/+100. Corn basis also firm +35/+65
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 25,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; sold 5,000 Soymeal, and; bought 8,000 in Soyoil. CFTC estimated Managed Money net long 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 316,000 Corn; long 177,000 Soybeans; long 69,000 Soymeal, and; net long 81,000 Soyoil.
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