Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SX is up 6 cents and near 13.00. SMZ is near 342.1. BOZ is near 58.04. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.35. 5.44 key resistance. WZ is down 1 cent and near 7.10. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 7.15. MWZ is unch and near 9.04.
US stocks are marginally lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed but near contract highs. More concern about US/UK Nat Gas supplies.
Tech speaking; CZ and SX traded over initial resistance. Next; CZ 5.44, SX 13.27. WZ resistance 7.19.
Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. N/C Brazil dry. N/E Argentina rains. Russia and US winter wheat areas dry for planting 2022 crop.
Big debate on final US corn and soybean yield. Early corn yields below expectations. Farmer not selling. Most will use USDA 176.3 corn, 50.6 soybean yields. Dry end to summer has some near 170.0 and 49.5. Next big USDA report is Sep 30 stocks report. USDA corn 1,187, beans 175. Cash corn strong.
Dalian soybean, soyoil, palmoil are higher. Corn and soymeal lower. Malaysian palmoil closed. China soybean Crush margins positive. Need soybeans. China economy slowing. Sell copper reserves. Lower Canada canola crop is helping World rapeseed prices. Higher demand helping palmoil. Trade still thinks Russia wheat exports lower. 90 pct harvested. Crop could be near 70 mmt. Wheat futures supported by lower Canada supplies, EU quality and improving global trade.
Most analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout near USDA 1,187, but 21/22 near 1,200 vs USDA 1,408. Most analyst est US 20/21 soybean carryout near USDA 175, but 21/22 near 150 vs USDA 185. Most analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout near 565 vs USDA 615.
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