Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 3 cents and near 12.40. SMZ is near 362.0. BOZ is near 58.55. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.7. WZ is up 2 cents and near 8.19. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 8.34. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 10.54. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is mixed to lower. Crude is lower.
US Midwest weather dry. EU and Black Sea dry. Argentina, Brazil weather favorable. S Brazil dry. Dalian soybean and corn futures are lower. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil higher.
This week Biden and Xi will talk. Some feel China may ask to reduce Phase 1 buying 35 pct to $265 billion. GSI Commodity Index ended lower due to lower energy prices. Higher grains and metals offered support.
Corn open interest up 100,000 contracts, corn 200,000, all wheats 150,000, soymeal 90,000. End users are short and could be net buyers on breaks. Speculators also want to buy due to inflation talk.
Some feel CH may be in 5.50-6.00 range. Drier Argentina S Brazil weather could force CH to 6.25-6.75. Private analyst est US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,290 vs USDA 1,493 due to higher demand.
Favorable South America weather and lower US exports could keep SF in a 11.80-12.50 range. Most analyst est US 2021/22 soybean carryout closer to 400 mil bu vs USDA 340 due to lower exports. Dry S Brazil and Argentina weather could push SF or SH over 13.00. US farmer selling could limit gains.
KC futures made new highs on talk of tight World exporter supplies, potential drop in EU Russia exports. Increase Russia farmer selling could offer resistance KWZ near 8.50. Tight World supplies could support Some fee KWH could rally to 8.75-9.00 if Russian and EU exports slow. Analyst estimate US 2021/22 wheat carryout 568-640 vs USDA 583. Key is final exports.
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