Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down 3 cents and near 13.12. SX is down 3 cents and near 13.09. SMU is near 353.0. BOU is near 60.95. CU is down 4 cents and near 5.54. CZ is down 4 cents and near 5.43. WU is down 2 cents and near 6.49. KWU is up 1 cent and near 6.28. MWU is up 12 cents and near 8.46 and 8 year highs. Quiet before the storm? Critical USDA report tomorrow. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Questions about Delta virus variant slowing energy demand?
For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 113 3/4 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 61 1/2; Soymeal down $36.70; Soyoil up 1.83. There were changes in registrations (-50 Soyoil ). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 668 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 88 yuan ; Soymeal up 48; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 110; Corn up 27 — Malasyian Palm is up 53. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 53 ringgit (+1.51%) at 3559.
US 8-14 day weather forecast calls for below rains in NW Midwest normal to above east and south. Temps are above in NW and central Midwest below east and south.
USDA rated the US corn crop 64 pct G/E vs 65 last week and 73 ly. MN dropped 7, SD 10. 33 pct of US crop is rated below tend yield including states of ND,SD,MN and IA. 35 pct above including IN, KY, WI, OH and TN. USDA rated the US soybean crop 60 pct G/E. MN dropped 8, SD 2 and TN 5. AR was up 14, IA, IL ,IN all was up 1. 34 pct of US soybean crop yield is below trend, IA, MN, ND,SD. 33 pct above trend including AR, KY, LA, TN, NE and OH. 20.5 million soybean acres are in ND, SD and MN.
USDA est that 33 pct of US winter wheat crop is harvested, IL 63, MO 51, KS 41, OK 80 and TX 75. Some feel US SRW crop may be getting too much rain. USDA also estimated US spring wheat crop down 7 to 20 pct G/E and a 33 year low. ND is rated 20 pct G/E with 42 pct of the crop headed.
Trade est US corn acres near 93.8 mil, soybeans 89.1 and wheat 46.0. June 1 corn stocks are est near 4,130 mil bu, soybean 773 and wheat 861.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 27,,000, Corn; 15,000 Soybeans; 5,000 lots of soyoil, and; 6,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net short 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 227,000 Corn; net long 58,000 Soybeans; net long 8,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 48,000 Soyoil.
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