Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 6 cents and near 12.12. SMH is near 359.7. BOH is near 47.96. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.44. WH is down 1 cent and near 5.81. KWH is down 1 cent and near 5.92. MWH is up 3 cents and near 6.84. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. IEA est higher 2024 oil demand led by China.
CH is near 4.44. Weekly US export sales delayed until Friday due to Monday holiday. Dalian Corn prices were sharply lower. China Dec corn imports were record 4.95 mmt mostly Brazil. Sep-Dec imports 12.2 mmt and on pace to exceed USDA forecast of 23 mmt. Matif corn made new lows .Export demand is slow and Ukraine prices are lower and steep discount to US and EU. Argentina is dry. Some showers noted in C/N Brazil but overall rainfall remains below normal. Higher SA and Ukraine supply is negative
SH is near 12.12. Some consumer buying noted near 12.00 SH. Argentina is dry. Some showers noted in C/N Brazil but overall rainfall remains below normal. Brazil farmer selling slowed on lower board and basis. China Q1 soybean imports are estimated to be down 20 pct ls ly at 18.5 mmt. Talk of lower China pig herd, lower China crush margins, slower economy, decline in population and higher stocks due to record Brazil imports could reduce imports. Dalian, soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. Palmoil higher.
WH is near 5.81. KWH is near 5.92 (new low). MWH is near 6.84 (new low). Egypt bought 300 mt wheat from Russia and 60 French. Matif wheat futures are higher on increase demand from Algeria, Jordan, Tunisia and Egypt. New lows in KC and MLS is offering resistance to Chicago despite tight US SRW supplies. A lower US Dollar and higher Crude oil prices could offer support to wheat with funds net short 67,000 Chicago wheat contracts.
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