Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SH is up 3 cents and near 12.43. SMH is near 366.0. BOH is near 47.33. CH is unch and near 4.52. WH is up 3 cents and near 6.14. KWH is up 7 cents and near 6.33. MWH is up 6 cents and near 7.11. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and above $76. Gold is higher and finding support near 100 DMA.
CH is near 4.52. CH is up 16 cents from recent contract low. 20 DMA resistance is near 4.56 CH. Last weeks cold weather slowed ethanol production, rail movement and farmer selling. Ethanol production was down 22 pct from last week and 19 pct ly. Stocks were highest since March, 2023 and up 3 pct vs ly. Weekly US export sales are est near 725-1,400 mt vs 1,251 last week. Argentina is dry. Brazil farmer is rethinking safrina corn planted acres due to negative margins. Brazil corn seed sales are down 15-20 pct in some regions. Ukraine export demand is slowing. Red Sea tension is lowering EU corn exports and limiting higher EU prices. Farmer protest continue in France and E Europe.
SH is near 12.43. SH is up 43 cents from recent contract low. 20 DMA resistance is near 12.50 CH. Last weeks cold weather slowed rail movement and farmer selling. Dalian soybean soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. US Board crush margins are near new monthly lows on higher soybean prices and lower soyoil. Weekly US export sales are est near 700-1,200 mt vs 781 last week. Argentina is dry. Early Brazil soybean yields are erratic but export premiums are lower on lower demand. Biodiesel RIN values dropped to 3 ½ year lows due to increase crush capacity versus lack of equal increase in demand. Palmoil values are higher due to seasonal drop in production but China and India imports could drop due to negative import margins.
WH is near 6.14. KWH is near 6.33. MWH is near 7.11.WH is up 40 cents from recent low. WH is above 20,50,100 DMA. KWH is above 20 and 50 DMA. KWH is above 20 DMA. There is little news contributing to the rally in wheat futures. Some are concerned about dry US and Canada weather and estimates of lower US 2024 all wheat acres. There were rumors of new China interest in US wheat. Still, Russia to date exports are below pace to reach USDA export goal. Some bulls fear this could suggest big increase in Feb-June Russia exports. US weekly wheat exports sales are est near 200-625 mt vs 707 last week. France still has good port loadings to China and W Africa. France and E EU farmers continue to protest higher cost.
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