Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down 12 cents and near 13.13. SX is down 13 cents and near 13.05. SMU is near 370.0. BOU is near 57.64. CU is down 5 cents and near 5.66. CZ is down 5 cent and near 5.5. WU is up 4 cents and near 6.69. KWU is up 4 cents and near 6.13. MWU is up 29 cents and near 7.97. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 1/2 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, up 62 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans down 70 1/2; Soymeal down $21.10; Soyoil down 2.04.
US east Midwest could see rain next week including IA. North plains dry. PNW dry, Russia dry. China Dalian soybean, soyoil, palmoil prices were higher. Corn was lower. Hog margins lowest in 7 years.
USDA dropped US corn rating to 65 pct G/E vs 68 lw and 72 ly. NE 83. SD 34. IA 56. IL 64. OH 76. USDA dropped US soybean rating to 60 pct G/E vs 62 lw and 70 ly. AR 53. ND 23. IA 57. IL 66. OH 72. USDA dropped US Spring wheat rating to only 27 pct G/E vs 37 lw and 75 ly. ND 19. USDA estimated US winter wheat harvest 17 pct done. TX 58. OK 50. KS 13. AR 60. MO 27.
Most est US June 1 soybean stocks near 763 mil bu vs 1,381 ly. Mar-May exports 181 vs 246 ly. Same group could see US soybean acres near 88.5 vs USDA 87.6 and 83.1 ly. Cotton 11.8 vs 12.1
Most est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,014 mil bu vs 5,003 ly. Mar-May exports 1,053 vs 606 ly. Same group could see US corn acres near 93.6 vs USDA 91.1 and 90.8 ly. Sorghum 7.1 vs 5.9 ly.
Most est US June 1 wheat stocks near 841 mil bu vs 1,028 ly. Mar-May exports 263 vs 246 ly. Same group could see US all wheat acres near 46.2 vs USDA 46.4 and 44.3 LY. Rice 2.7 vs 3.0.
One crop watcher lowered Brazil corn crop to 90 mmt vs USDA 98.5. Argentina 45 vs USDA 47.
On Monday, Managed funds were net even SRW Wheat; sold 4,000corn; bought 6,000 soybeans; sold 1,000 soymeal and bought 8,000 soyoil. CFTC estimated Managed funds to be net short 8,000 SRW wheat; long 252,000 corn, 107,000 soybeans, long 19,000 soymeal and long 67,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 8,000 SRW wheat; long 257,000 corn, 117,000 soybeans, long 22,000 soymeal and long 70,000 soyoil.
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