Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. USDA report day. SU is down 5 cents and near 13.41. SX is down 4 cents and near 13.35. SMU is near 352.0. SMZ is near 354.4. BOU is near 62.53. BOZ is near 61.85. CU is unch and near 5.56. CZ is unch and near 5.59. WU is unch and near 7.27. WZ is near 7.40. KWU is unch and near 7.11. KWZ is near 7.22. MWU is up 6 cents and near 9.19. MWZ is near 9.05.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude oil is mixed. Biden wants OPEC to raise production.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 8 yuan ; Soymeal down 34; Soyoil up 128; Palm oil up 230; Corn up 22 — Malaysian Palm is down 32. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 32 ringgit (-0.71%) at 4479 after hitting an contract high earlier in the session with weakening demand outweighed supply tightness in the second-biggest grower Malaysia.
US Midwest 10 day weather forecast dry and warm. 10-15 day suggest increase chance for rain.
Today’s USDA est of US corn and soybean crop farmer survey only, No objective data used yet.
Trade est US corn yield near 177.6 vs USDA 179.5, soybeans 50.4 vs USDA 50.8. Trade est US 21/22 corn carryout 1,297 vs USDA 1,432, soybean 159 vs 155 and wheat 644 vs 665. Trade est World 21/22 corn stocks 288.2 mmt vs USDA 291.6, soya 94.6 vs 94.5 Wheat 288.2 vs 291.7.
Bulls fear USDA could drop Brazil corn crop but raise Arg and Ukraine. This could limit higher US exports. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 300-1,000 mt vs 898 last week.
Bulls fear USDA could make few changes to US/World soybeans S/D. US yield key. Weekly US soybean sales est near 400-1,000 mt vs 435 lw. Recent sales to China/unknown 929 mt. News that China is closing its number 1 port due to Covid may be weighing on soybean prices.
Traders watching USDA est of US, Canada and Russia wheat crops. Will they lower World demand? Weekly US wheat sales est near 250-500 mt vs 308 lw. US premium to other sellers. Spread narrowing
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 2,000 soymeal and bought 5,000 corn, 2,000 soybeans and 4,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 13,000 SRW Wheat; long 255,000 Corn; net long 64,000 Soybeans; net long 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 66,000 lots of soyoil.
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