Mixed As Market Braces For Key Usage Data

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mixed trade across the Ag Space this morning as markets brace for key usage data while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East.  EPA weekly ethanol production is out at 9:30 AM CST while NOPA crush data from March-26 at 11 AM is expected to show another month of record soybean processing.  Energy prices are mixed having recovered from lower trade overnight.  Spot WTI crude oil is up $1.00 per barrel, near $92.25, after falling as low as $87.  Spot RBOB is down $.01 per gallon while HO is up $.06.  Markets remain hopeful another round of peace talks will happen soon.  While the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, so does the fragile ceasefire.  Much above normal temperatures are expected across the nation’s midsection thru the end of the week ahead of a dramatic cool off this weekend.  Rain continues to feed from the SE plains through the central Midwest into the Great Lakes region.  Dry in the SE while limited precipitation for the far WCB and northern Plains.  Freezing temperatures may impact much of the northern Midwest and plain states by early next week.  Dry across much of Brazil the past 24 hours.  Precipitation over the next week will favor the far northern growing areas and the interior south.  Heavy rains in NE Argentina may induce localized flooding in Northern Santa Fe and southern Chaco.  While lighter amounts in BA, it may still slow harvest activities.  The US $$$ index is moderately higher while holding within yesterday’s range.  US stock indices are little changed.  The S&P 500 has closed higher 9 of the past 10 sessions while nearing its all-time high.  The Nasdaq has closed higher 10 consecutive sessions.

Corn:

July-26 is up $.03 ½ at $4.56 while Dec-26 is up $.03 at $4.73 ½.  July is consolidating near its 100-day MA at $4.55 ½.  While we continue to see a big discrepancy between the USDA and SA production forecasts, US FOB offers remain competitive into the summer months.  Look for US exports to remain strong.  Ethanol production is expected to slip to 320 mil. gallons LW, down from 328 mil. the previous week.  Plantings in the SE and Delta are moving along at a rapid pace, slower across the Central Midwest.

Soybeans: 

July-26 beans are up $.09 at $11.82 while Nov-26 beans are $.07 higher at $11.51.  July-26 meal is up $.70 at $328 while July-26 oil is up 50 points near 66.75.  China has denied supplying military aid to Iran while vowing to retaliate against any increased tariffs by the US.  Russia maintains they can help fill China’s energy needs from any shortfalls due to the US/Iran war.  Tensions between US/China remain elevated leading up to the Trump/Xi meeting scheduled May 14^th and 15^th.  NOPA crush in Mch-26 is expected at a new all-time high at 230 mil. bu., well above the 209 mil. from Feb-26 and 194.5 mil. in Mch-25.  Spot crush margins remain near their 3 ½ year high, just under $3.00 bu.  Bean oil stocks are expected to build to 2.173 bil lbs. up from 2.08 bil last month and well above the 1.5 bil. lbs from Mch-25.

Wheat: 

Prices range from steady to $.03 lower across the 3 classes, not able to hold initial strength overnight.  CGO July-26 is down $.03 at $5.98 ½ while KC July-26 is down $.01 at $6.35.  Right now WW doesn’t expect freezing temperatures late this week will be low enough for long enough to seriously impact the HRW crop.  Drought conditions in the far Western plains continue to deepen however as rains have stayed east.  EU soft wheat exports as of April 12^th at 18.57 mmt are up 8% YOY.  Awaiting results of Algeria’s 50k mt tender for durum wheat.

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