Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SX is up. CZ is up. WZ is up. KWZ is down. MWZ is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. China property market issues may be worsening.
Soybean futures are higher. USDA left US 2022/23 soybean crush at 2,220 and exports at 1,980. Carryout was dropped 5 mil bu due to lower imports. USDA dropped US crop 95 mil bu and exports 25. This dropped US 2023/24 carryout to 245. USDA raised US meal exports 200 tsts to 15,000. USDA dropped US soyoil exports 50 mil lbs. USDA raised China soybean imports 1 mmt to 100 USDA est Brazil and Argentina 2024 crops at 211 mmt vs 181 this year. Argentina and N Brazil are dry. US Midwest will be warm and dry this week. SX support is near 13.00. 13.33 is resistance.
Corn futures are higher but 4 cents off overnight high. USDA dropped US crop 209 mil bu, feed use 25 and exports 50. This dropped US 2023/24 carryout to 2,202. This is still adequate for demand. China domestic corn prices remain near 9.60 with positive import margins. Still some uncertainty over China corn supplies after recent flooding rains. USDA dropped China corn crop 3 mmt but left imports at 23. US Midwest will be warm and dry this week. CZ support is near 4.80. 5.20 is resistance.
Wheat futures are mixed and 6 cents off overnight high. Tension increased over the weekend as Ukraine fired drone attacks on Kerch bridge and Moscow. Russia fired at a commercial vessel. USDA raised US carryout 23 mil bu due to lower exports. USDA dropped Canada crop 2 mmt., EU 3 mmt and raised Ukraine 3.5 mmt. USDA dropped World wheat trade 2 mmt due to lower Canada exports. WZ is near 6.50 support. 6.90 is resistance.
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