Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 8.25
July 8, 2025
Mid East Tensions Escalate Triggering Risk-Off Sentiment
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership escalates tensions in the Middle East and triggers risk-off sentiment. Israel’s strikes also killed the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and leading nuclear scientists. Iran launched a drone counter strike this morning. US stocks are sharply lower. Demand for safe-haven assets like gold have surged in response. The precious metal is nearing its all-time high of $3,509.90/oz, set in mid-April. Crude is near $73. USD is higher. US Midwest forecast into June 22 is favorable. Rains are forecast for SD, MN and W IA. South plains could be dry helping harvest. Both models hint of a central US ridge after June 20.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.46. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were higher. EPA could announce biofuel policy next week with RVO 4.65 bil gals vs 5.25 hoped. USDA est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 350 mil bu and 2025/6 at 295. One group looks for lower US 25/26 exports and carryout closer to 500. USDA est World 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 125.3 mmt vs 124.3 in May. USDA kept China soybean imports at 108 mmt after May was record 13.6 mmt. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 61 mmt with unknown sales down 260. Total commit is 48.7 mmt vs 43.7 ly. USDA goal is 50.35 mmt vs 46.13 ly.
CORN
CN is near 4.38. Dalian corn futures were lower. USDA est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,365 mil bu and 2025/26 1,750. This due to higher 24/25 exports. One group est US 2025/36 carryout closer to 2,030 mill bu due to lower exports. USDA est World 2025/26 corn end stocks at 275.2 mmt vs 277. 8 in May USDA lowered 24/25 China imports 1 mmt to 7 but left 25/26 at 10 mmt. Weekly US corn export sales were 791 mt. Total commit is 65.9 mmt vs 52.3 ly. USDA goal is 67.31 mmt vs 58.23 ly.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.32. USDA est US wheat crop at 1,921 mil bu vs 1,921 in May. USDA est US 2024/25 wheat carryout to 841 mil bu and 2025/26 at 898. 25/26 lower due to higher exports. USDA est World 2025/26 wheat end stocks at 262.7 mmt vs 265.7 n May Weekly US wheat export sales were 389 mt. Total commit is 5.9 mmt vs 4.8 ly. USDA goal is 22.45 mmt vs 22.3 ly.
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