Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. USDA report day. SF is up 3 cents and near 13.68. SMZ is near 448.9. BOZ is near 50.20. CZ is down 1 cent and near 4.75. WZ is down 6 cents and near 5.86. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 6.51. MWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.33. US stocks are near unch. US Dollar is near unch. Crude is higher. Gold is lower.
Soybean futures are higher. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. Central and north Brazil forecast is dry. 10-15 Brazil C/N forecast has showers but confidence is low. One group lowered their est of Brazil soybean crop to 156 mmt vs USDA 163 or down 250 mil bu. Trade is looking for only a 1 mil bu increase in US crop and carryout. Surprise could be higher crop and carryout. USDA announced 476 mt US soybean to unknown and 433 mt to China. Weekly total to China 1.15 mmt. Trade est weekly US soybean export sales at 800-1,500 mt vs 1,010 last week. After USDA report focus will be Brazil weather.
Corn futures are slightly lower. Trade is looking for 15 mil bu increase in US crop and 18 mil bu increase in carryout. Surprise could be higher crop and carryout. US is dry, C/N Brazil is dry, S Brazil is wet. One group lowered their est of Brazil corn crop to 123 mmt vs USDA 129. Continue dry/warm C/N Brazil weather could drop the crop even more. Trade est weekly US corn export sales near 600-1,200 mt vs 748 last week. USDA did announce 270 mt US corn to Mexico. Damage to vessel near Odessa rallied corn futures. Overnight prices have given part of the rally back.
Wheat futures are lower. Trade estimates USDA to drop US carryout 1 mil bu, 2023/24 Stocks of top 6 World exporters is near 39 mmt vs 54 ly. Trade est weekly US wheat export sales near 250-500 mt vs 275 last week. Damage to vessel near Odessa rallied wheat futures. Overnight prices have given part of the rally back.
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