Macroeconomics: The Week Ahead: 25 to 29 September
Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist
The Week Ahead – Brief Preview:
The week’s major data schedule is heavily backloaded but kicks off with Germany’s Ifo, US Consumer Confidence and a host of other surveys, US House Prices, Home Sales and Durable Goods. Thursday and Friday have national and Eurozone CPI, US annual GDP revisions, Personal Income, Japan Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, while Saturday sees China’s NBS PMIs. There will be month and quarter end to contend with, while the Mawlid-al-Nabi (Birth of the Prophet Mohammed) will see many Islamic countries during the middle of the week, and Friday sees China close down until 8 October for the Autumn Festival ‘Golden Week’. Central bank speakers are plentiful, with CEE and EM rate decisions expected to see a 75 bps rate hike to 9.50% in Nigeria, but rates on hold in Czechia, Hungary, Mexico and Colombia. Govt bond supply will be plentiful, with the US selling a whopping USD 134 Bln total of 2,5 & 7-yr, and auctions in EU, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and UK, and Japan, Australia and Canada, with the earnings schedule minimalist, with Costco and Nike headlining in the US. Politically the focus will be on a seemingly inevitable US Govt shutdown and any efforts to bring the UAW strike to an end; tensions between Ukraine and Poland (very much related to the upcoming Polish election), as well as increasing signs of Ukraine support ‘fatigue’ in Europe and US, the kick-off to party conference season in the UK, amongst other factors including US/Iran relations.
Commodities markets will continue to keep a close eye on oil and oil product price trends but are all overwhelmed by a deluge of conferences around the world. To highlight but a few: Energy Trading Week and Future Food Tech in London, IEA Critical Minerals and Clean Energy, and IEA/ECB/EIB Energy Transition and the Economy in Paris, World Chemicals in Berlin, China International Aluminum Week. International Rapeseed in Australia and Globoil India (international edible oil) conference. The IEA also publishes an update to its Net Zero Roadmap.
Eurozone CPI: Base effects will be the key drivers of an expected sharp drop in Germany and sharp rise in Spain, with France seen up a little, and Italy down a little, but all resulting in Eurozone CPI rising 0.5% m/m, but dropping to 4.5% from 5.2% y/y (thanks to the German fall) and core easing to 4.8% from 5.3% y/y.
US PCE deflators are likely to echo CPI: headline rising 0.5% m/m to edge up 0.2 ppt to 3.5% y/y, but core up just 0.2% m/m, with y/y down 0.3 ppt to 3.9%.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI is expected to edge down 0.1 ppt across all measures, but with ‘core core’ still riding high at 3.9%.
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