Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 8.25
July 8, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. Gold is lower. Crude is higher. USD is higher. Some south US ridging is now forecasted. South plains could be dry helping harvest. West EU is dry. Dry China areas could see rains. Israel and Iran continue to trade rocket attacks to each other. Russia continues to bomb Ukraine cities. Trump left G7 meeting early.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 10.53. BOU 54.72. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. One group looks for lower US 25/26 exports and carryout closer to 493. US May NOPA soybean crush was 192.3 mil bu vs 183.6 ly. End of May NOPA soyoil stocks were 1,373 mil lbs vs 1,451 expected and 1,724 ly. Lower US soymeal prices are attractive to buyers. USDA rated US soybean crop 66 pct G/E vs 70 expected and 68 last week. Crops dropped in AR, LA, MI. MO, ND and WI. Weekly US soybean exports were 7.9 mil bu. Exports are 1,668.7 mil bu vs 1,502.2 ly. Some est US June 1 soybean stocks near 984 mil bu vs 970 ly. Some say on farm stocks could be below last year.
CORN
CU is near 4.21. Dalian corn futures were lower. One group est US 2025/36 carryout closer to 2,027 mill bu due to lower exports. USDA rated US corn crop 72 pct G/E vs 73 expected and 71 last week. IA is rated 80 pct G/E, IL 70. Weekly US corn exports were 65.8 mil bu. Exports are 2,049.0 mil bu vs 1,594.9 ly. Some est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,683 mil bu vs 4,997 ly. Some say on farm stocks could be below last year.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.54. KWU is near 5.51. MWU is near 6.33. Rains are forecast for ND and S Canada prairies. USDA rated US WW crop 53 pct G/E vs 55 expected and 54 ly. USDA rated SW crop 57 pct G/E vs 56 expected and 53 last week. US WW harvest is 10 pct vs 25 ly. Weekly US wheat exports were 14.2 mil bu. Season to date exports are 21.6 mil bu vs 26.0 last year. Some est US June 1 wheat stocks near 842 mil bu vs 696 ly. HRW 396 vs 274 ly, SRW 115 vs 126 ly and HRS 227 vs 190 ly. Some say on farm stocks could be below last year. Some feel WU range could be 5.20-5.80. KWU 5.00-5.60. MWU 5.80-6.60.
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