Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Nov 29.23
November 29, 2023
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar was higher in the overnight trade but is currently lower.
Severe technical damage was done to the greenback earlier this week when major trendlines were penetrated on the downside.
The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.9% in October 2023, which is down from 4.3% in September.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said a cut in the European Central Bank’s interest rates won’t be happening in the near future. Borrowing costs “have to remain at a high level for a sufficient period.”
Retail sales in the U.K. fell by 0.3% month-over-month in October 2023, following an upwardly revised 1.1% decrease in September and falling short of the market estimate of 0.3% growth.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Housing starts in October were 1.372 million when 1.350 million were expected and building permits were 1.487 million when 1.463 million were anticipated.
The technical aspects have become much more supportive to stock index futures this week, especially after on Tuesday the S&P 500 futures broke out above a triple top formation on the daily chart.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped below 4.40%, marking a two-month low.
Futures came under pressure when the U.S. housing starts and permits numbers were released.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Michael Barr at 7:45, Susan Collins at 7:45, Mary Daly at 8:30, Austan Goolsbee at 8:45 and Susan Collins at 9:15.
Despite recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, there is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hiking cycle.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
