Written Commentary
US Dollar Likely to Recover
October 8, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
New Month, New Quarter. Grains are lower. Open US harvest week weather is offering resistance to soybeans and corn. Wheat is following. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower and near $66. Gold is higher. US Fed Chairman said there is no reason to rush rare cuts. Higher Crude supply offsets Middle East tension. Israel ground offensive entered Lebanon. US dockworkers went on strike from Maine to Texas.
SOYBEANS
Overnight futures are lower on better South America weather. Mato Grosso Brazil could see needed rains for planting. Argentina could also see needed rains. China is closed for holiday. US Midwest 2 week forecast is warm and dry which should help harvest. USDA est harvest at 26 pct. USDA also rated crop unch at 64 pct G/E. USDA Sep 1 stocks were 342 mil bu vs 351 expected vs 264 ly. US soybean exports are down 3 pct vs last year. Brazil farmer increased farmer selling. China is absent from Brazil soybean market. USDA announced 116 mt US soybeans to China.
CORN
Corn futures are lower. Argentina could see needed rains. Brazil is dry but rains are forecast in week 2. China is on holiday. USDA Sep 1 stocks corn stocks were 1,760 mil bu vs 1,844 expected and 1,360 ly. This rallied futures and spreads. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest. US farmer should see rally and carry. USDA est harvest at 21 pct and dropped corn rating 1 pct to 64 G/E. Most look for CZ range of 3.95-4.25 until 50-60 pct of US harvest is done.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are lower. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. US wheat stocks were 1,986 mil bu vs 1,973 expected vs 1,767 ly. USDA est US wheat crop at 1,971 mil bu vs latest est of 1,982 and 1,812 ly. US winter wheat planting is 38 pct. Market continues to be good sellers if WZ nears 6.00. Russia prices have firm which is supporting futures. Russia farmer selling has slowed. Australia crop could exceed USDA est.
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