Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 9 cents and near 15.64. SX is down 6 cents and near 13.93. SMN is near 411.0. BON is near 67.89. CN is now unchanged and near 6.58. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.41. WN is down 7 cents and near 6.91. KWN is down72 cents and near 6.40. MWN is down 4 cents and near 7.09.
Risk off. Most commodities are lower in front of US Fed minutes which should be dovish. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is for mostly favorable weather. This should help crops.
Wheat is lower after KS crop scouts are finding northern wheat yields the highest in 20 years.
News that Argentina will ban beef export for 30 days and could increase export taxes helped wheat. Argentina farmers plan a 48 hour strike against the beef export demand. Argentina considers law that would increase soyoil biofuel exports 500 mt. Exports are est near 6.5 mmt.
Corn futures lower due to Informa 96 mil acres est. This offset China buying US corn/Brazil lower crop.
Reports that nearby soybean futures had reached a level to ration demand offers resistance. There are also reports that domestic soybean basis have dropped. Some link this to too much meal.
Asian corn and oilseed markets all turned lower on lower China crush margins and large corn imports. High soyoil prices may be slowing demand for biofuel. More concern about India demand after typhoon.
US fob soybean export price $615 vs Brazil 561 and Argentina 552. Where is China new crop buying?
US fob corn export price near $298 vs Argentina 253 and Ukraine 300. Low Argentina prices negative
US fob HRW export price near $289, Baltic 280, Germany 280, Russia 275, July French 266
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 4,000 Corn; sold 10,000 Soybeans; 3,000 Soymeal, and; 3,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 190,000 Corn; long 152,000 Soybeans; long 43,000 Soymeal, and; net long 99,000 Soyoil.
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