MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 9 cents and near 15.64. SX is down 6 cents and near 13.93. SMN is near 411.0. BON is near 67.89. CN is now unchanged and near 6.58. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.41. WN is down 7 cents and near 6.91. KWN is down72 cents and near 6.40. MWN is down 4 cents and near 7.09.
Risk off. Most commodities are lower in front of US Fed minutes which should be dovish. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is for mostly favorable weather. This should help crops.
Wheat is lower after KS crop scouts are finding northern wheat yields the highest in 20 years.
News that Argentina will ban beef export for 30 days and could increase export taxes helped wheat. Argentina farmers plan a 48 hour strike against the beef export demand. Argentina considers law that would increase soyoil biofuel exports 500 mt. Exports are est near 6.5 mmt.
Corn futures lower due to Informa 96 mil acres est. This offset China buying US corn/Brazil lower crop.
Reports that nearby soybean futures had reached a level to ration demand offers resistance. There are also reports that domestic soybean basis have dropped. Some link this to too much meal.
Asian corn and oilseed markets all turned lower on lower China crush margins and large corn imports. High soyoil prices may be slowing demand for biofuel. More concern about India demand after typhoon.
US fob soybean export price $615 vs Brazil 561 and Argentina 552. Where is China new crop buying?
US fob corn export price near $298 vs Argentina 253 and Ukraine 300. Low Argentina prices negative
US fob HRW export price near $289, Baltic 280, Germany 280, Russia 275, July French 266
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 4,000 Corn; sold 10,000 Soybeans; 3,000 Soymeal, and; 3,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 190,000 Corn; long 152,000 Soybeans; long 43,000 Soymeal, and; net long 99,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.