Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 6 cents and near 15.38. SX is down 12 cents and near 14.47. SMN is near 381.6. BON is near 69.14. CN is down 7 cents and near 6.91. CZ is down 8 cents and near 6.08. WN is down 3 cents and near 6.80. KWN is down 4 cents and near 6.36. MWN is down 6 cents and near 7.60.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. China Dalian SB, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Corn and soymeal were higher.
Mexico is holding up import permits for GMO corn saying the government intended to apply a GMO ban to the grain used in animal feed despite contrasting comments by a top U.S. official.
US 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.
China Ag Minister est corn feeding near 286 mmt vs 293 previous and 278 ly. Drop due to higher feedgrain imports and ample wheat and rise supplies. He lowered soybean use to 116 mmt vs 119 and 108 ly. He lowered soybean imports to 100 mmt vs 102 and 98 ly.
Private est of US 20210 corn carryout are near 1,000 mil bu vs USDA 1,107. Most have higher exports. Analyst also est US 2021/22 carryout near 1,000 vs USDA 1,357. Most est higher exports. One group est US 2020/21 and 2021/22 soybean carryout near 50 vs USDA 135 and 155. Difference is higher exports. USDA June est of US soybean exports have been to low last 8 years. USDA could still be 8 mmt to high in Brazil corn est and 6-7 mmt too high in Russia wheat crop est.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net even SRW Wheat; bought 10,000 corn; sold 6,000 soybeans; 2,000 soyoil and 4,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money to be net short 5,000 SRW Wheat; net long 319,000 Corn; long 160,000 Soybeans; long 5,000 Soymeal, and; net long 107,000 Soyoil.
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