Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 9 cents and near 13.30. SMH is near 398.7. BOH is near 50.36. CH is unch and near 4.76. WH is up 2 cents and near 6.19. KWH is up 3 cents and near 6.30. MWH is up 2 cent and near 7.24. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
One group is looking ahead to US 2024 crop acreage mix. They est US 2024 corn acres at 92.5 mil vs 94.8 this past year, yield 181.0 crop of 15,313 and 2024/25 carryout 2,566. They est US 2024 soybean acres at 86.0 mil vs 83.6 this past year, yield 53.0, crop of 4.511 and 2024/25 carryout 516. They est US 2024 wheat acres at 48.9 mil vs 49.5 this past year, yield 49.2, crop of 1,923 and 2024/25 carryout 747.
CH is near 4.76. Trade still worried about higher US Dec 1 stocks and USDA increase US 2023 corn crop in Jan. Weekly US corn exports were 37 mil bu with season to date exports 399 vs 314 ly. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amounts. There were heavy rains in central Argentina. Low water in Panama canal has vessels rerouting below S Argentina and increase Red Sea drone attacks has vessels rerouting below S Africa. Dalian corn futures were sharply lower.
SH remains near midpoint of 13.00-13.50 range. SMH is below 400. BOH moved above 50 cents. Weekly US soybean exports were 52 mil bu with season to date exports 777 vs 937 ly. USDA announced 582 mt US soybeans to China/unknown. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amounts. There were heavy rains in central Argentina. Low water in Panama canal has vessels rerouting below S Argentina and increase Red Sea drone attacks has vessels rerouting below S Africa. Dalian soybean futures were sharply lower while palmoil and soyoil were higher.
Push pull wheat futures trade continues with overnight futures mixed. HRW/SRW spread is now +13 vs +180 in May. Recent China business could push SRW over HRW. More US south plains rains are forecasted for this week. Weekly US wheat exports were 10 mil bu with season to date exports 328 vs 420 ly. Low water in Panama canal has vessels rerouting below S Argentina and increase Red Sea drone attacks has vessels rerouting below S Africa. Increase World wheat buying interesting read but origin is mostly cheaper Russian. Egypt announced a wheat tender.
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