Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 3 cents and near 13.60. SMZ is near 438.0. BOZ is near 50.21. CZ is down 3 cents and near 4.73. WZ is down 4 cents and near 5.71. KWZ is down 6 cents and near 6.39. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 7.27. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower due to higher Dollar. Gold is lower.
Soybean futures are lower. Could be some profit taking near Monday high. There is talk US farmers are selling cash soybeans. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. Central and north Brazil forecast is dry. There is talk that Brazil may need to replant some of the 2024 crop. US soybean exports are down 5 pct vs ly. Total soybean export commit is down 28 pct. China Oct soybean imports were 5.2 mmt vs 4.1 ly. USDA est US soybean harvest near 91 pct.
Corn futures are lower. US corn export are up 23 pct vs ly. USDA did announce 290 mt US corn to Mexico. US Fob premiums have dropped on improved US barge loading logistics. USDA est US corn harvest near 81 pct on 94.9 mil acres vs 85 ly on 88.6 ly. MI, OH and WI is farthest behind. Ukraine est corn crop at 28.8 mmt vs USDA 28.0 and 27.0 ly. Some est Brazil corn crop at 160 mmt vs USDA 163 and 156 ly. There is talk that US farmers are selling corn on basis contracts to lock futures price later.
Wheat futures are lower. Russia continues to offer cheap wheat for export. Russia prices are near $227 vs US SRW $259. Lack of new buying interest continues to weigh on wheat futures. USDA estimated US winter wheat 50 pct G/E up 3 pct vs ly and vs 30 ly. Plantings are 90 pct done, Weekly US wheat exports were lowest on record. Exports are now down 26 pct vs ly.
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