Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Key USDA report this week. SX is up. CZ is unch . WZ is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper cocoa and cotton are higher. Coffee and sugar are lower.
Soybean futures are marginally higher. USDA report this week. Trade est US soybean yield near 50.2 vs 50.9 in August. Some could see final yield below 50. FGIS August soybean exports were 63 mil bu vs inspections near 47. This could add 12 mil bu to US 2022/23 exports. Brazil 2024 soybean plantings have slowed due to dry weather. China soybean imports are record high. SMZ had outside day closed higher on lower Argentina supply. BOZ has dropped from 65 to 60 on concern about Asian demand and lower palmoil prices.
Corn futures are near key support. US and EU corn harvest is starting which limits fund buying. Brazil corn exports are supported by low US Miss river logistics and slow Ukraine exports. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 vs 175.1 in August. Early corn harvest yields are disappointing.
Wheat futures have made new lows. Matif wheat futures were lower due to record Russia monthly wheat exports vs lower US and EU. World wheat supply trend is lower especially Australia. Funds continue to be short wheat futures and willing to keep position in carry market and roll up to next contract. Russia has refused to reopen Ukraine grain export deal despite efforts by the UN and Turkey.
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