Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
CRUDE OIL
Kazakhstan oil exports for the January-March averaged 1.63 million barrels per day, according to calculations by Reuters that was based on official data and other source, up 7% from the same period a year ago. OPEC+ producers have been concerned that Kazakhstan and Iraq have been exceeding their quotas. OPEC+ increased its production quota by 411,000 barrels/day for May, which was three times more than had been expected, and there has been talk that they may make a similar move for June when the meet next month. The trade may also be disappointed over the apparent lack of progress in US/China trade discussions. This morning’s announcement that the US Treasury Secretary will be meeting with representatives of a host of US trading partners may offer some hope of progress on new deals. The Trump Administration is expected to reduce some of the duties on foreign parts used for automobile manufacturing. For the weekly storage reports, the early Reuters poll has an average expectation for crude stocks to show a net increase of 500,000 barrels for the week ending April 25, with gasoline stocks expected to be down 1.2 million and distillates down 1.7 million. Refinery runs are expected to be up 0.1% to 88.2%.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas is higher this morning following a sharp reversal to the upside yesterday. Prior to the rally, the market had fallen into oversold territory, and the stochastics indicators had crossed over to a buy signal from a low level. Apparently the market had gotten overdone on the mild weather/low demand/increasing supply themes. The weather forecast did turn a bit cooler in the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast, but it is getting late in the season to count on much of a surge in demand. If anything, predominant above-normal temps in the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 could conceivably spark increased cooling demand. The trade does appear to be anticipating a large increase in supply in this week’s EIA storage report. The early Reuters poll calls for a net injection of 93-115 bcf last week for the week ending April 25. The five year average for the week is +55 bcf (range +15 to +77). Australia’s Woodside Energy gave final approval to build a $17.5 billion LNG project in Louisiana. This is the first LNG project to be announced in the US since Trump lifted the moratorium imposed by the Biden administration.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
