Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 17.24
May 17, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures were lower in the overnight trade following several weaker than expected corporate earnings reports.
However, futures recovered when the larger than expected jobless claims report was released.
Jobless claims in the week ended May 4 were 231,000 when 212,000 were anticipated.
The fundamentals and technicals are becoming more bullish.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index was higher in the overnight trade after comments yesterday from several Federal Reserve officials suggested interest rates will stay elevated for longer. However, some pressure on the greenback developed when the larger than anticipated jobless claims number was released.
The Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, as largely expected, but more Monetary Policy Committee members supported a rate cut than expected.
Two of the nine members of its MPC, including the deputy governor, voted to lower the key rate to 5.0%. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey in his press conference said, “We are not yet at a point to cut interest rates.”
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures were steady to lower in the overnight trade but quickly firmed when the larger than expected jobless claims report was released.
The Treasury will auction 30-year bonds today.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 69% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.
The fundamentals and technicals have improved for futures, especially at the long end of the yield curve.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
