Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 11 cents and near 15.41. SX is up 10 cents and near 13.83. SMN is near 397.8. BON is near 66.05. CN is up 7 cents and near 6.64. CZ is up 14 cents and near 5.60. WN is up 12 cents and near 6.76. KWN is up 12 cents and near 6.25. MWN is up 36 cents and near 7.63. Resistance is near 15.55 SN, 6.72 CN and 6.79 WN. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher on better China date.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 57 1/4 in SRW, down 76 3/4 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/4; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal down $28.10; Soyoil up 3.65.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 26 yuan ; Soymeal up 20; Soyoil up 36; Palm oil down 20; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 20. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 20 ringgit (-0.51%) at 3899 extending losses toward a one-week low as traders weighed signs of deteriorating demand for the tropical oil.
USDA 10 day weather forecast is dry and warm for US north plains, upper Midwest and PNW.
US corn planting near 97 pct vs 88 average. Crop is expected to be rated 70 pct G/E vs 67 average. US soybean plantings near 89 pct vs 67 average. 15 pct US soybean acres and 10 pct corn in Dakotas.
USDA June WASDE S/D June 10. Analyst est US 2020/21 soybean carryout 110 and corn 1,030. Analyst est US 2021/22 corn acres near 93.0 carryout 1,150, soybean acres 88.5 carryout 110. USDA acreage and grain stocks report June 30. USDA reports, US weather, China demand key
On Tuesday, USDA will issue their first US 2021 corn crop rating and is expected above 70 pct G/E. 11 of 15 years rating above 70, final yield at/above USDA May. Extreme summer weather forced remaining years below USDA May. With 10 pc of US corn acres and 15 pct of US soya acres in the Dakota’s, Weather there could impact final US supplies. Talk of higher China 2021/22 demand for US corn and US soybean suggest US 2021 corn yield must be near 180 and soybean near 51.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 17,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans and 3,000 soyoil, and bought 3,000 in soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 299,000 Corn; long 146,000 Soybeans; long 32,000 Soymeal, and; net long 91,000 Soyoil.
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