Written Commentary
Ag Market View for September 10.24
September 10, 2024
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures were lower in the overnight trade but are higher this morning on limited news.
There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.
There is a 67% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting, and there is a 33% probability that the FOMC will reduce its key interest rate by 50 basis points in September.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower today, although S&P 500 futures remain above a recent upside breakout that took place on August 29.
The 8:45 central time August manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.0.
The 9:00 August Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 47.5, and the 9:00 July construction spending report is estimated to show a 0.1% increase.
August was a very strong month for stock index futures. However, some analysts believe September looks less promising from a seasonal point of view, since S&P 500 futures declined in each of the last four Septembers.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher and is above a steep downtrend line that started in early August.
The euro zone August manufacturing PMI was 45.8 when 45.6 was forecast.
Switzerland’s gross domestic product increased by 0.7% on the quarter in the second quarter, beating market forecasts and the previous period’s 0.5% advance. This was the fastest economic expansion since the second quarter of 2022.
The Japanese yen is lower even though Bank of Japan Governor Ueda recently make comments that reiterated his intention to raise interest rates further, provided the economy continues to perform as the central bank anticipates.
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