Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures were lower in the overnight trade but reversed and are higher now after the release of the U.S. 7:30 economic reports.
Personal income in January on a month-to-month basis increased 1.0% when up 0.4% was expected, and personal consumption expenditures were up 0.2% as anticipated. The PCE price index on a month-to-month basis increased 0.3% as forecast.
Jobless claims in the week ended February 24 were 215,000 when 210,000 were expected.
The 8:45 central time February Chicago PMI is estimated to be 47.3.
The 9:00 January pending home sales index is predicted to be up 0.8%.
The February Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing index will be released at 10:00. In January the index was -9.
Stock index futures are higher today despite bearish on balance economic reports, which suggest futures are likely to follow-through to the upside.
The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index came under limited pressure when the U.S. 7:30 reports were released. Traders appear to be focusing on the larger than expected jobless claims report.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback longer term.
Germany’s annual consumer price inflation declined to 2.5% in February 2024, from 2.9% in the previous month and more than market expectations of 2.6%.
The number of people out of work in Germany increased more than anticipated in February.
The number of unemployed grew by 11,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.713 million. Analysts had expected the figure to increase by 7,000. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained stable at 5.9%.
German retail sales unexpectedly declined by 0.4% in January after falling 1.6% in December.
Switzerland’s gross domestic product grew by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023, exceeding expectations of 0.1%.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Federal Reserve speakers today are Raphael Bostic at 9:50, Austan Goolsbee at 10:00, Loretta Mester at 12:15 and John Williams at 8:10 PM.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 2.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures.
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