Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures traded higher in the overnight trade. There were additional gains when the 7:30 central time U.S. economic reports were released.
Jobless claims in the week ended November 16 were 213,000 when 219,000 were expected.
The November Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index unexpectedly declined to -5.5 when +7 was anticipated.
The 9:00 October leading indicators report is forecast to be -0.3%, and the 9:00 October existing home sales report is estimated to be 3.9 million.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index came under mild pressure when the weaker than expected Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index was reported.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to the U.S. dollar and are bearish for the euro currency.
The number of insolvencies in Germany increased 22.9% in October from the previous year.
There are expectations that the European Central Bank will lower its key interest rates more aggressively than the Federal Reserve, which is likely to put additional pressure on the euro.
The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly industrial trends survey showed output expectations for the next three months improved to +9 in November from -1 in October, which is the highest since August. Output over the last three months declined to -12 from -6 in the three months to October. However, the CBI’s measure of industrial orders improved to -19 from -27, which is better than forecasts of -25.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures firmed when the bullish Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index was released.
Federal Reserve speakers today Beth Hammack at 7:45, Austan Goolsbee at 11:25, Beth Hammack at 11:30, Jeffrey Schmid at 11:30 and Michael Barr at 3:40 PM.
There is a 56% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its December 18 policy meeting, and there is a 44% chance of the FOMC keeping rates unchanged at 4.50% – 4.75%.
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