Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 23.24
April 23, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher, suggesting major indexes will extend their rebound.
Fears of a slowing global economic recovery are being offset by a banner start to the corporate earnings season.
Mortgage applications in the U.S. declined 4.0% in the week ended July 16. Applications to purchase a home fell 6.4% and those to refinance a home loan declined 2.8%.
In recent months, stock index futures have shown a tendency to recover from bearish news.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index advanced and remains near a four-month high, as demand for safe-haven assets remains strong.
In the weeks ahead it is likely that the flight to quality influence that the greenback is currently enjoying will dominate over other market influences.
The European Central Bank will hold its policy meeting tomorrow.
Japan’s exports increased 48.6% in June from a year earlier, which compares with May’s 49.6% increase and was stronger than the 46.2% increase expected by economists.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Safe-haven flows took the 30-year Treasury bond futures to a 5-month high yesterday, although some longs were liquidated late yesterday and today as stock index futures advanced.
The Treasury will auction 20-year bonds.
Substantial gains in the 30-year Treasury bond futures since May and a flattening yield curve suggests the rate of inflation may be peaking and the rate of growth in the global economy may be slowing.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
