Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are higher on the final day of the third quarter as the Senate reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown. The Senate reached a stopgap deal that would fund the government until early December. Congress needs pass the bill before midnight to avoid a shutdown. Lawmakers must still raise the debt ceiling by October 18 to prevent the U.S. from defaulting on its debt.
Although lower on the month, stock index futures are on track for a sixth-consecutive quarter of gains.
The third estimate of the second-quarter GDP is 6.7% when 6.7% growth was expected.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ending September 25 increased for a third straight week to 362,000 when 335,000 were anticipated.
The 8:45 central time September Chicago PMI is predicted to be 65.3.
The longer-term fundamental and technical aspects remain supportive for stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index advanced to a one-year high, as firming U.S. Treasury yields made the dollar more attractive to investors. There is a consensus view that the Federal Reserve will announce a tapering of its $120 billion a month in its asset-purchase program at its November policy meeting.
In addition, there is some flight to quality buying coming into the greenback.
A report today showed Germany’s consumer price inflation rate is expected to accelerate to 4.1% year-on-year in September 2021, compared with market expectations of 4.2%.
The British pound is higher on news that the U.K. economy expanded 5.5% on quarter in the second quarter of 2021, which is well above initial estimates of a 4.8% increase.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures firmed on news that jobless claims increased more than estimated.
Traders continue to weigh prospects that the Fed will soon taper its $120 billion a month in asset purchases.
Federal Reserve speakers today are John Williams at 9:00, Raphael Bostic at 10:00, Patrick Harker at 10:30, Charles Evans at 11:30, James Bullard at 12:05 and Mary Daly at 1:30.
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