Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 11 cents near 14.05. SX is up 9 cents and near 13.89. SMU is near 367.9. BOU is near 66.08. CU is up 1 cent and near 5.65. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.58. WU is up 11 cents and near 6.83. KWU is up 10 cents and near 6.51. MWU is up 18 cents and near 9.12.
US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Will demand exceed supply? What impact will Delta variant have on demand? US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. China buying iron ore, nickel and zinc. Will corn and beans be next?
Dalian soybeans are lower, soymeal unch, palmoil/soyoil higher, corn lower.
For the week WU up 65 cents KWU up 54 MWU up 95 CU up 39, SU dwn 10, SMU dwn $13 BOU up 377.
China soybean stocks rose despite better crush margins. China buying March,2 022 beans from Brazil.
Weekly US soybean sales and June crush low. Soymeal demand down. US soyoil stocks 8 month low. US soybean crusher soybean ownership low. Farmer out. This adds to US 2021 crop importance.
Brazil farmers concerned about low supply of their key herbicide glyphosate. La Nina 2022 Brazil?
Matif rapeseed prices near 2 moth high. Winnipeg canola futures back above $900.
Corn futures finding resistance from slow export sales despite talk of lower South America supplies.
USDA estimates Brazil July-Sep soybean exports near12 mmt, Argentina 15 or 5 per month.
WU weekly price rally largest in 4 years. MWU above $9.00 for first time since Dec, 2012. IKAR dropped Russia wheat crop est to 81.5 mmt vs 83.5 previous and WOB 85.0.
Canada prairie, US PNW and north plains 2 week weather hot/dry. Ridge could move into WCB. EU rains will move to Balkans. Russia spring wheat areas hot/dry. Argentina dry. Australia good.
Some doubt WOB 179.5 corn yield, even 176.6 record, soybean 50.8 and NASS HRS 305 crop.
Key SU resistance is now near 14.34, BOU 69.00, WU 6.94 and MWU 9.50. CU still struggling but could test 5.72 next week if US upper Midwest weather is hot/dry. Dry Canada, ND and PNW weather is supportive. USDA failed to drop US corn and soybean yields in July but did drop the US HRS and durum crop more than expected.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 3,000 soyoil; sold 3,000 corn, 3,000 soybeans and 3,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 228,000 Corn; net long 94,000 Soybeans; net long 27,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 64,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
