Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up. CN is unch. WN down. KWN is unch. MWN is up. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is near $81, Gold is higher. CFTC report today. US Presidential debate Thursday and USDA acreage and stocks report Friday.
SN is near 11.67. Heavy NW US Midwest rains offers supportOld crop soybean export commit are better than expected but new crop are near record low. USDA rated US crop down 2 pct to 70 pct G/E. Some could see another 3-5 pct drop this week. US soymeal export commit is record high. Trade est US soybean acres near 86.75 million vs 86.5 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 963 vs 796 ly with most stocks off farm. Dalian soybean futures were higher, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower.
CN is near 4.35. Corn futures dropped on increase export competition from South America starting in July. Trade afraid to add weather premium despite talk of lower Brazil and Argentina crop and continue dryness in north China, Mexico and N Midwest is wet. Dry N Brazil could slow export logistics there. USDA rated US crop down 2 pct to 72 pct G/E. Some could see another 3-5 pct drop this week. Old crop corn export commit is 2080 mil bu vs 1,521 ly. Trade est US corn acres near 90.35 million vs 90.3 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 4,873 vs 4,103 ly with most stocks on farm. Dalian corn futures were higher.
WN is near 5.59. Global harvest pressure has weighed on futures. EU, Ukraine and Russia are lowering export prices to find demand also offered resistance to futures. A few remain bullish wheat prices long term due to 20 mmt drop in EU and Russia crops. Trade est US wheat acres near 47.65 million vs 47.49 in March. Trade also est June 1 stocks at 684 vs 570 ly with most stocks off farm.
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