Happy Friday. Grains Are Mostly Lower.

MORNING OUTLOOK

Happy Friday. Grains are mostly lower. SH is down 7 cents and near 14.69. SMH is near 453.6. BOH is near 62.10. CH is down 2 cents and near 6.51. WH is unch and near 7.57. KWH is down 3 cents and near 8.57. MWH is down 2 cents and near 9.16. US stocks are lower after Fed Chairman hawkish remarks.  US Dollar is slightly higher. Crude is lower. Silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.

Soybeans futures are lower on concern about future China soybean imports demand. China US export commit is near levels expected if China imports 98 mmt total imports. There is concern that Covid infection cases could increase in China prior to China New Year holiday on Jan 22. China has been that largest importer of energy and commodities which raises concern for both in 2023. Higher US weekly soybean export sales offered support to US export basis. Argentina est that 51 pct of crop was planted vs 70 average. G/E rose from 11 pct to 9 pct but still below 85 last year. Matif rapeseed futures are lowest since the last week in 2021. Dalian soybean, soyoil and rapeseed oil prices were lower. Soymeal was higher.

Corn futures mixed with dry Argentina weather and concern about Ukraine exports offering support while slow US export and ethanol use offering resistance. There are some light showers in Argentina extended forecast. 43 pct of Argentina corn crop is planted vs 58 average and crop is rated 18 pct G/E vs 83 ly. There is growing concern about S Brazil corn crop. Last years lower crop forced Brazil to import Argentina corn before the larger 2nd crop harvest. More overnight bombing of Ukraine raises concern about their corn export pace especially with 9 mmt of the crop still in the field and vessel insurers unwilling to cover war risk.

Wheat futures are slightly lower. Concern about US south plains and Midwest cold temps next week offers support. Basis levels remain strong as HRW and SRW work into feed rations. Like corn, more overnight bombing of Ukraine raises concern about their wheat export pace especially with vessel insurers unwilling to cover war risk. Matif wheat continues to slide lower and at lowest levels since the beginning of the Ukraine war. French wheat export prices are now competitive vs Russia. Russia exports are slowing due to poor weather. Russia also trying to deal with large export commit and lower Insurance vessel coverage.  Argentina lowered their est of their wheat crop which raises concern about exports.

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