Written Commentary
Core CPI Data Softer than Expected
May 13, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower on demand concerns. Gold is higher on talk of US rate cut.
SU is near 10.38. Funds added to record shorts Monday. NOPA est June soybean crush at 175.6 mil bu vs March 183.6 and 165.0 ly. This week US Midwest should see normal rains with temps near normal. US exports were only 6 mil bu. Season to date shipments are near 1,543,8 vs 1,833 .2 ly. USDA rated the US soybean crop at 68 pct G/E, unch from last week and 55 ly. 1 pct of crop is blooming vs 44 normal. Dalian soybean, soyoil and soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil was higher. Brazil soybean export prices were firm on increase China demand.
CU is near 3.95. US domestic and export basis is firm. This week should see normal rains with temps normal. US exports were 42 mil bu. Season to date shipments are near 1,755.4 vs 1,336.7 ly. USDA rated the US corn crop at 68 pct G/E, unch from last week and 57 ly. US crop is 41 pct silking vs 32 normal. Dalian corn futures were lower. Crude is lower on China demand concerns. US Dollar is higher. Both negative to commodities. Brazil corn export prices were firm,
WU is near 5.36. USDA est US 2024 all wheat crop at 2,008 vs 1.909 expected. US winter wheat harvest is 71 pct. USDA est US Spring wheat crop at 578 vs 468 ly. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 77 pct G/E vs 51 ly. USDA numbers were bearish. Black Sea prices are cheapest but August World trade is thin.
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