Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Sept 28.23
September 28, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 11 cents and near 14.48. SMZ is near 418.3. BOZ is near 76.20. CZ is up 3 cents and near 6.83. WZ is up 5 cents and near 8.46. KWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.49. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.51.
China and Hong Kong equity markets are sharply higher on social media talk that China could soon relax strict Covid policy. Positive news on audit of US listed stocks also helped China stocks. Rising tide lifts all boats with EU and US equities, Crude, grains and most commodity prices higher. Dollar is lower.
US soybean exports commit is up 1 pct from ly versus USDA est of a 5 pct decline. Last weeks commit total was up 5 pct vs ly. Informa raised their US 2022 crop yield and are above USDA. Brazil soybean crop planting is done. There is needed rains forecasted for next week. Feb-Mar Brazil soybean export prices are 80-90 cents lower than US. Argentina is dry with soybean plantings usually starting mid Nov. Trade est US 2022 soybean crop at 4,315 mil bu vs USDA Oct 4,313 and 2022/23 carryout at 212 vs USDA 200.
US corn export commit remains down 53 pct vs last year. China bought 500 mt Dec Brazil corn and 500 mt Brazil March. Brazil has a record 50 mmt corn supply as of Oct 1. Argentina corn is 23 pct planted with crop rated only 6 pct G/E, all time low for this week and vs 82 ly. Trade est US 2022 corn crop at 13,887 mil bu vs USDA Oct 13,895 and 2022/23 carryout at 1,207 vs USDA 1,172. US ethanol and feeder corn basis still strong while river basis remains weak. Upper Midwest rains could help Miss river water levels.
Talk that Ukraine vessels can move in and out of Ukraine weighed on wheat prices. Still there is no confirmation from either Russia or Ukraine that the export deal will be extended after Nov 19. Some feel Turkey and Russia may be making a list of countries that need Russia grain and fertilizer exports. G20 meeting could be place for Putin to announce Russia stance on Ukraine grain exports. US HRW crop areas are dry. US PNW still snowing. Next week the north half of US could see a frost. Argentina is dry with crop lowered to 14 mmt vs USDA 17.5. Argentina wheat crop is rated 9 pct G/E vs 46 ly. Argentina will allow exports to roll forward 8.4 mmt of wheat sales. Exporters own only 3.1 mmt. Australia wheat harvest is delayed. More rain is in the forecast for next week. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 578 vs USDA 576.
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