Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 8 cents and near 12.74. SMZ is near 374.5. BOZ is near 56.13. CZ is up 4 cents and near 4.96. WZ is up 10 cents and near 5.79. KWZ is up 9 cents and near 6.83. MWZ is up 10 cents and near 7.31. US Dollar is higher.US stocks are lower. Hamas attack on Israel adds another war to equation. Possibility Iran backed Hamas has Crude sharply higher. USDA October report and SA weather key to grain prices.
Soybean futures are higher. China Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. China bought 14 mil bu US soybeans last week but total US sales are down 32 pct vs ly. US soybean harvest is est near 50 pct. Increase demand for US soymeal exports and domestic soyoil use should help crush margins. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet. US Midwest weather is mostly dry. Below normal rains continue to lower water levels. Trade est US soybean yield near 49.9 and 2023/24 carryout at 233.
Corn futures are higher. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet. US Midwest weather should be mostly dry. US harvest is est near 35-38 pct done. Russia attacks on Odessa adds uncertainty to Ukraine export pace. US ethanol margins remain positive. Some feel CZ is near seasonal low. Range 4.70-5.20. Some feel highs could be post harvest and if SA weather remains dry. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 and 2023/24 carryout at 2,138. Hamas attack on Israel is helping Crude prices which could be helping corn prices.
Wheat futures ended lower last week on concern over global demand. Overnight, futures are higher. Increase Russian attacks on Odessa may be offering support. Some feel WZ could test 6.00-6.20 on lower World crop est and concern over Ukraine and Russia exports. Argentina wheat crop could drop to 15 mmt vs est near 19-20. West Australia is dry. Domestic India wheat prices are near 8.50. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 647 vs USDA 615.
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