Grains Start Lower. Risk Off.


Grains are lower. SF is down 7 cents sand near 13.86. SMZ is near 414.2. BOZ is near 71.74. CZ is down 4 cents and near 6.78. WZ is down 9 cents and near 8.29. KWZ is down 12 cents and near 9.20. MWZ is down 5 cents and near 9.45.

Risk off. Recession fears and talk of higher rates although at slower pace offers resistance to commodities values. Higher US Dollar could also hurt US grain exports. US, EU, Argentina and Black Sea are mostly dry. Argentina and C Brazil dryness could continue into Nov. Lack of rain could stress US 2023 HRW crop and keep Miss river levels record low. US Midwest and SA cant wait for La Nina to be done.

Soybeans and soymeal are lower on demand worries. US could see lower animal numbers. Another day of plus 1,000 new China Covid cases adds to lockdowns and could slow feed use and eventually soybean imports. US PNW soybean prices are a discount to China vs SA. There is no US nearby soymeal export price. SA is cheaper. Could see a conflict between near record high crush margins and lower soymeal and soyoil export demand. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were all lower.

Corn futures are lower. CZ continues in a tight trading range but near the lower end of the range. US feeders and crushers bids remain high. They need corn. US farmer not selling. The

Spread between US corn export commit and USDA export goal widened to down 53 pct. This is negative river basis, futures and spreads. Central Brazil and Argentina weather is not perfect. Corn traders waiting for news on Ukraine export deal that expires Nov 19. Ukraine war continues to disrupt World trade. Some fear CZ could remain in this 6.70-7.00 for next 2 months.

Wheat futures are also lower led by KC. MLS continues to gain vs Chicago and KC. US plains and Argentina are dry. E/S Australia is too wet. Extension of Ukraine export corridor deal or not will be key to wheat futures price direction. Ukraine grain exports are slowing. Russia prices are lowest to buyers and increasing. WZ continues its prices downturn from Oct 10 9.49 high. WZ is now trading below all MA with key support near 8.24.

US Dollar is higher. US stocks, Crude, gold, silver, copper, cotton, coffee, cocoa and sugar are all lower.

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