Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Nov 29.23
November 29, 2023
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 7 cents sand near 13.86. SMZ is near 414.2. BOZ is near 71.74. CZ is down 4 cents and near 6.78. WZ is down 9 cents and near 8.29. KWZ is down 12 cents and near 9.20. MWZ is down 5 cents and near 9.45.
Risk off. Recession fears and talk of higher rates although at slower pace offers resistance to commodities values. Higher US Dollar could also hurt US grain exports. US, EU, Argentina and Black Sea are mostly dry. Argentina and C Brazil dryness could continue into Nov. Lack of rain could stress US 2023 HRW crop and keep Miss river levels record low. US Midwest and SA cant wait for La Nina to be done.
Soybeans and soymeal are lower on demand worries. US could see lower animal numbers. Another day of plus 1,000 new China Covid cases adds to lockdowns and could slow feed use and eventually soybean imports. US PNW soybean prices are a discount to China vs SA. There is no US nearby soymeal export price. SA is cheaper. Could see a conflict between near record high crush margins and lower soymeal and soyoil export demand. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were all lower.
Corn futures are lower. CZ continues in a tight trading range but near the lower end of the range. US feeders and crushers bids remain high. They need corn. US farmer not selling. The
Spread between US corn export commit and USDA export goal widened to down 53 pct. This is negative river basis, futures and spreads. Central Brazil and Argentina weather is not perfect. Corn traders waiting for news on Ukraine export deal that expires Nov 19. Ukraine war continues to disrupt World trade. Some fear CZ could remain in this 6.70-7.00 for next 2 months.
Wheat futures are also lower led by KC. MLS continues to gain vs Chicago and KC. US plains and Argentina are dry. E/S Australia is too wet. Extension of Ukraine export corridor deal or not will be key to wheat futures price direction. Ukraine grain exports are slowing. Russia prices are lowest to buyers and increasing. WZ continues its prices downturn from Oct 10 9.49 high. WZ is now trading below all MA with key support near 8.24.
US Dollar is higher. US stocks, Crude, gold, silver, copper, cotton, coffee, cocoa and sugar are all lower.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
