Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply lower. SK is down 18 cents and near 15.31. SN is near 14.97. SX is near 13.21. SMN is near 423.0. BON is near 658.65. CK is down 14 cents and near 6.81. CN is near 6.35. CZ is near 5.46. WN is down 18 cents and near 7.14. KWK is down 20 cents and near 6.90. MWN is down 19 cents and near 7.28. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed. Copper is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled down 52 yuan in soybeans, down 5 in Corn, down 51 in Soymeal, down 8 in Soyoil, and up 48 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 121 ringgit at 3,951 (basis July) at midsession on position-evening.
Concern over China demand, talk of US soybean , soymeal, wheat and corn imports weighing on futures. US Fed continued accommodation and lower interest rates weighing on commodities.
US President proposing large spending to be paid for by higher taxes.
US rains in OK. MO and Ohio river offering resistance. 6-10 day warm with normal rains .
A grain CEO comments that US corn and soybean acres will increase 5 mil from USDA weigh on CZ and SX. Higher acres could be from prevent plant acres in US NW states and good spring planting weather.
There were rumors China washing out Brazil soybean cargoes due to demurrage on large line up.
Talk of better US Midwest rains offset talk of lower Brazil corn crop and higher US export demand. Good US Midwest planting weather could suggest initial corn crop ratings above average. More acres?
World wheat prices are lower than US. Europe/Black Sea wheat works into us and Mexico as feed.
Talk of dry west US Midwest and plains summer weather suggest highs have yet to be scored. Focus now on May deliveries. Month end trading and USDA May 12 report.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 2,000 contracts of Corn; sold 12,000 Soybeans; sold 4,000 Soymeal, and; net even in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 45,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 534,000 Corn; net long 211,000 Soybeans; long 54,000t Soymeal, and; net long 118,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,400 contracts; Corn down 56,200; Soybeans down 15,900 contracts; Soymeal down 4,300 lots, and; Soyoil down 14,000. There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 5)—Registrations total 10 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 968 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 235.
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