Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 25.24
April 25, 2024
Grains Sharply Lower as Volatility Remains
- July 22, 2021
- Steve Freed
- Follow us on Twitter @TradeADMIS
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply lower. Price volatility continues. SU is down 23 cents and near 13.74. SX is down 23 cents and near 13.65. SMU is near 366.6. BOU is near 63.21. CU is down 12 cents and near 5.758 CZ is down 13 cents and near 5.55. WU is down 16 cents and near 6.94. KWU is down 12 cents and near 6.56. MWU is down another 24 cents and near 8.73. US stocks are higher on positive earnings. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher.
EU weather model is wetter for US west Midwest and north plains. Most private forecast do not agree.
Soybean futures flag technical formation support 13.53 with resistance 14.17. US summer weather key. Word that China bought 5 Argentina soybean cargoes of Aug-Sep negative. Weekly US sales 100-600 mt. US soybean fob price $565. Brazil $562. Argentina $541. US soymeal fob $437, Argentina $391. Brazil July soy exports 5.4 mmt vs 9 est. China has not bought US since June 24 when SU was 12.50.
Canada canola futures lower on forecast of rain in S Manitoba and SE Saskatchewan. Too little too late?
Dalian soybean, corn, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil future lower. China soybean crush margins negative.
US farmer new crop sales near 30-50 pct. Corn buyers covered for now. soybean crushers still buying. Brazil July corn exports 1.5 mmt. Brazil selling export corn back into higher domestic prices. Managed funds unwilling to add to corn longs given negative seasonal and slow export demand pace. US fob corn prices near $286, Argentina $241, Brazil $266, Ukraine $276. US export sales est 100-700
Minneapolis wheat now down 65 cents from Monday high on talk of Canada rain. Russia wheat harvest yields below last year. Some now est wheat crop near 80 mmt vs USDA 85. No French harvest yield data yet. German/Baltic has good protein but test weight below average. US HRW export prices near $313, Baltic $276, Germany $261, Russia $245, French $257
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 4,000 corn; and 3,000 soymeal and 4,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 9,000 SRW Wheat; long 229,000 Corn; net long 86,000 Soybeans; net long 25,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 48,000 Soyoil.
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