Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 10 cents and near 15.32. SX is up 2 cents and near 13.64. SMN is near 398.9. BON is near 66.11. CN is down 3 cents and near 6.54. CZ is down 3 cents and near 5.36. WN is up 1 cent and near 6.63. KWN is unch near 6.15. MWN is up 2 cents and near 6.86. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold and copper are lower.
US Midwest 2 week weather forecast is for mostly favorable weather. This should help crops.
Talk that China is targeting commodity speculators and hoarders is weighing on commodity prices. Talk of higher US acres hurt corn prices. 90 pct US corn planted vs 80 ave. IL 90, IA 97, OH 76.
US corn domestic basis are firm on increase ethanol demand, feed use and export demand. EU and Black Sea new crop corn futures lower on favorable weather. Old crop EU firm on low supplies
Asian soymeal and vegoil markets are higher. Soybeans lower. China soybean crush margins negative. China bought 7-17 Brazil cargoes last week vs 40 per week needed to reach 100 mmt import.
Concern remain for Argentina with labor strikes, low navigation water levels and talk of Covid lockdown.
USDA est 75 pct soybean crop planted vs 80 expected and 54 ave. IA 89, IL 80, OH 66, MO 44. Key in final price direction will be US summer weather with some forecasting dry and warm weather.
Matif rapeseed futures near 5 week low, Canada canola futures down for 3rd straight day.
- mmt of Europe and Black Sea wheat was offered in Egypt wheat tender at prices $20-25 below US.
USDA rated US winter wheat crop 47 pct G/E vs 48 last week. HRS crop rated 45 pct G/E vs 80 ly. KS 55 G/E, OK 51, OH 74, IN 62, WA 43, ND HRS 31 pct G/E.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 8,000 Corn; 2,000 Soybeans; 3,000 Soymeal, and; 1,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 260,000 Corn; long 129,000 Soybeans; long 35,000 Soymeal, and; net long 66,000 Soyoil.
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