Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are quietly mixed. SX is down 1 cents and near 12.69. SMZ is near 378.1. BOZ is near 53.22. CZ is unch and near 4.85. WZ is down 1 cent and near 5.57. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 6.70. MWZ is unch and near 7.23. US Dollar is unch. stocks are higher. Crude is a little lower. USDA October report, China demand and SA weather are key to grain prices.
Soybean futures continue to slide lower and away from 13.00. China Dalian soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil were lower. Soymeal is lowest since July. Parts of Brazil and Argentina remains dry. S Brazil is wet. CONAB est Brazil crop at record 162 mmt. USDA initial reported US soybean exports at 60 mil bu but revised to 38. Season to date export are 111 vs 102 ly. US harvest is 43 pct vs 23 last week. Trade est US soybean yield near 49.9 and 2023/24 carryout at 233. There is some talk that US Midwest soybean yields could be higher than expected. Lower Rin values and lower World vegoil prices continues to weigh on soyoil futures.
Corn futures have dropped below 5.00 resistance. CONAB est Brazil crop at 119 mmt, second largest but down 12.5 mmt vs ly. USDA estimated US exports at 21 mil bu. Season to date exports are 127 mil bu vs 111 ly. 34 pct of the US corn crop is harvested vs 29 ly. Trade est US corn yield near 173.5 and 2023/24 carryout at 2,138. There is some talk that US Midwest corn yields could be higher than expected.
Wheat futures continue to slide lower. Argentina wheat crop could drop to 12 mmt vs USDA 16.5. West Australia is dry but early harvest yield are better than expected. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 647 vs USDA 615. 57 pct of US winter wheat is planted vs 53 ly. US exports were 10 mil bu. Season to date only 233 mil bu vs 335 ly. Russia and Constanza ports are full with loadings while US exports are well below ly.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
